Abstracts

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2011 ABSTRACTS

Teaching Old Dogs New Tricks - Moving Beyond Excel Estimates
Chris Gardiner and Wilson Edwards – Tecolote Research, Inc.

“Whatever they say about not being able to teach old dogs new tricks, it is patently untrue. Old dogs may not learn as quickly as they did when they were young, but with time and patience, most older dogs can be taught to do anything that a young dog can.” (petplace.com)

Some “old dogs” continue to use Excel to build estimates for a variety of reasons. Others casually use ACEIT, use it less efficiently than they could, or revert back to Excel because they believe Excel to be “easier”.  Regardless of the reasons, “old dogs” can be taught new tricks using ACEIT features and capabilities that will make them feel “young” again. 

This presentation will address reasons why some individuals use Excel over ACE; it will show examples of “tricks” that are often not used because they haven’t been discovered or are not understood; it will also show how those “tricks” can be utilized to create more powerful, dynamic estimates.

ACEIT 7.3 Sneak Peek
Mike Allen and Sabrina Beane – Tecolote Research, Inc.

Have you ever heard the phrase "A picture is worth a thousand words"?  Well now you will be able to picture your estimate from within ACE!  Graph your estimate results and export the graphs to other applications. Did you ever wonder what unit number 111 costs on your learning curve?  You will be able to easily find out by using the new ACE Learning Curve report.  Have you ever wanted to phase your costs by milestones?  The new MS phasing method will allow you to specify the cumulative percent of point estimate to be spent by each milestone.  Attend this presentation to find out about these and more exciting new features planned for ACEIT 7.3, coming Spring 2011.

SPECIFIC ACEIT CAPABILITIES TRACK

Implementing Non-OSD Inflation indices using ACE and the ACEIT Librarian
Susan Catala - Tecolote Research, Inc.

Over the past few years, several studies have highlighted the disconnect between the OSD Standard Indices and the inflation rates that are being awarded on contracts.  This disconnect is apparent when the budget has been set to an ICE that used the OSD Indices and the contract is awarded with higher rate indices.  This leads to higher labor rates than planned in the ICE, especially in the later years of a contract.

There are multiple ways to accomplish modeling non-OSD indices in ACEIT including hard-coding in the labor rates, creating a custom inflation index using the ACEIT Librarian and writing a formula that calculates the index in ACE. 

This paper will walk through different methods of implementing non-OSD indices using ACE and the ACEIT Librarian and will highlight the benefits and the caveats with of each method and an example of when to use each method.

Enhancing ACEIT Capabilities with JIAT
Daniel Schwartz – ODASACE
Melissa Cyrulik – Tecolote Research, Inc.

The Joint Integrated Analysis Tool (JIAT) is a CAC-enabled, web-based system that facilitates seamless linkages between cost estimating, engineering design models, capability and performance data and operations and support databases.  JIAT provides a single location where analysts can search for, retrieve, analyze, and incorporate data into their estimates.  JIAT allows end-users to run a wide-variety of models and providers from their desktops. 

JIAT has several interaction areas with ACEIT and the information gathered through JIAT can be used to enhance ACEIT estimates and increase productivity.  JIAT allows the user to search across multiple tools and data sources effectively and efficiently.  Specifically, both the JIAT ACE Plug-in and the Excel client allow you to import JIAT-provided data directly into CO$TAT and ACE.  

The JIAT system offers two features that assist analysts with cost estimating and analysis efforts.  The first set of features, the databases providers, focus on delivering data from several Army standard data sources including CKB, AMCOS, OSMIS, and FORCES. The data from these databases are provided to the cost analyst in a common Excel Interface or through the JIAT web-browser interface.  This data can be analyzed further using CO$TAT to look for distribution trends or to develop CERs.  JIAT’s future development includes adding other government data sources that will plug into this common framework.

A second set of JIAT features focuses on CER Libraries.  JIAT contains a series of actively populated CER Libraries.  Currently these libraries include several major CER studies including the Missile Blue Book and the Army’s Ground Vehicle Systems Blue Book.  Government organizations can create their own CERs and Cost Factor Libraries which can be shared throughout their organizations.  JIAT users can actively add CERs to these libraries and immediately make data accessible to other JIAT users.  The CERs in these libraries can be searched for and downloaded into a web-browser, an Excel worksheet or directly into an ACE session.

This presentation summarizes the databases, libraries, and models currently available to government analysts and shows how to utilize the information in CO$TAT and ACE.  Specifically, the presentation shows how to access and transfer JIAT-hosted CKB data into CO$TAT, as well as develop a CER.  In addition, we will access OSMIS data with JIAT and use ACEIT’s distribution finder utility to analyze the uncertainty distribution of consumable and repairable data.  Finally, we show a summary of the information available in the JIAT CER libraries and demonstrate how to search and retrieve JIAT-hosted CERs, work with CERs in Excel and export them directly to ACE.

Streamlining Data Table Calculations
Gina Fennell – Tecolote Research, Inc.

This presentation will show how to simplify an ACE session containing tables of data. The following ACE features will be demonstrated:

·          Using Yearly columns to store non-yearly data

·          Relative row-referencing (lets you avoid creating a unique ID for every row)

·          Key Matrix functions to calculate summary results

·          Simple User Defined Function

These features will be shown using a simple ACE session. Methodologies will be generated real-time during the presentation to allow you to see step-by-step how to achieve results.

Lead/Lag Columns - What are they & How do I use them?
Daniel Garcia - Tecolote Research, Inc.  

This presentation will demonstrate how to use the lead/lag column in ACE.  It will provide specific, real examples of the following: how leads/lags are used in a "real world" estimate; the proper syntax for them; tips and tricks on capabilities of this column. It will also demonstrate scenarios one could easily put into practice utilizing this column.

REAL-WORLD APPLICATIONS TRACK

Integrating Excel, R, and ACEIT for a Comprehensive Analysis Package
Karen Mourikas and Denise Nelson – The Boeing Company

Over the past two years, analyzing costs and scope from simulation-based Experimentation projects, we developed an experimentation cost estimating toolkit using the ACEIT suite of tools and capabilities.  The toolkit consists of an easy-to-use front end Excel user interface for project leads unfamiliar with ACE models, an ACE “black box” engine which employs matrix functions to access embedded data within the model, and imported custom CDFs for Risk/Uncertainty analysis.  In addition, the toolkit employs the Excel-to-ACE plug-in which manages calls to external statistical functions via the R Statistical package.  This paper highlights how ACEIT ties together these diverse capabilities employed in the toolkit.

ESC/Aerial Networking Division - Leveraging ACEIT's What-If Capabilities for Platform Integration Cost Estimating Excursions
Ryan Archambault-Miliner – ESC Aerial Networking Division (ESC/HNA)
William Lane – Tecolote Research, Inc.

Cost estimating serves a vital function within the Air Force. The Electronic System Center (ESC) at Hanscom AFB is responsible for the acquisition of a wide variety of communications systems for Air Force users. The Aerial Networking Division at ESC acquires, delivers and sustains Air Force and Joint systems to include communications, intelligence and airspace management capabilities supporting AF Global Continuous Operations. The ESC/HNA cost team has been a key player in producing cost estimates for platform integration of tactical communications equipment aboard many Air Force aircraft. In a constrained budget environment, Air Force senior leadership is continually considering cost, schedule, and technical tradeoffs. In this environment, it is imperative to be able to rapidly provide comparisons between a variety of what-if scenarios. This presentation will explore creating a dynamic ACE file, creating what-if cases, and leveraging POST to produce comparative reports.

Finding the Optimal Budget Profile given a Risk Adjusted Phased Estimate
Steve Wilson - NASA JSC
Antonio Rippe – Tecolote Research, Inc.

This presentation is the ACE implementation of budgetary constraints and shifting of non-funded effort in a program estimate.  This presentation will demonstrate the “Early FY Funding Shortfall Impact on Overall Project Confidence Level” (FSCL) methodology developed by Alf Smith to assess the yearly effort that is not covered due to yearly budget shortfalls. 

Implementation of FSCL will provide the PM the information to cover the unfunded effort by assessing and adjusting the phased budget, given a phased risk adjusted estimate.  FSCL demonstration will focus Time Dependent and Time Independent costs along with finding a phased budget profile that covers annual phased effort given a risk-adjusted phased estimate.  Program managers need to be aware of yearly effort that is in excess of the allocated budget or the program will find itself with shortfalls that could carry over to the completion of the program.

Army's Implementation of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)
Monica Malia - ODASACE
Brian Jacobs - ODASACE

This presentation will present the Army's implementation of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA).  Topics that will be covered include why the Army requires CBAs and CBA Policy, CBA Guidance and the CBA end-to-end process map, CBA Training, and the Army's eCBA Framework (CBA portal, creation tools, workflow tool, and business intelligence).  A live demonstration of the Army's CBA Workflow Tool with real CBA data will be conducted.

Business Case Analysis for Operational Projects
Kishore Gagrani - PRICE Systems

The paper will detail the Army's vision of aligning Cost Benefits Analysis (CBA) to meet DoD-5000 instructions requirements. This will further describe CBA process overview at DASA CE and different components of CBA. The paper will then map the CBA components and underlying process to some of the prevalent COTS tools that can help support the process.

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2010 ABSTRACTS

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS TRACK

Using Unitized Uncertainty Distributions in ACE
Jeff McDowell - Tecolote Research, Inc.

This presentation will present techniques for using unitized uncertainty distributions in ACEIT.  A unitized distribution is designed to be modeled as a multiplier of point estimates. Starting from a simple point estimate model, the presentation will show how to select distributions from the AFCAA Cost Risk and Uncertainty Metrics Manual (CRUAMM) and apply them to your estimate via the RI$K Distribution Specification screen of ACE's Input All Form.

Joint Cost and Schedule Uncertainty: A How-to Primer
Steve Sultzer – Galorath, Inc.
Tom Walker – Tecolote Research, Inc.

Joint cost and schedule uncertainty is a new trend in cost estimating, and is becoming an expected output from today's cost estimates.  There have been many papers on why one would or should use joint uncertainties and the theory of joint uncertainties (including more math than most of us really want to see).  This presentation will explain the basics of why and when an estimator might choose to use joint cost and schedule uncertainty and how, using third-party tools (SEER in our presentation) and ACE, a joint uncertainty model can be developed.  This presentation will focus and the how-to and will provide step-by-step instructions for setting up an ACE session to provide joint cost and schedule uncertainty.

Using ACEIT Technology to Conduct Schedule Risk Analysis 
Steve Wilson – NASA JSC
Charles Hunt – NASA HQ
Darren Elliott – Tecolote Research, Inc.

NASA has recently implemented a policy that requires a program/project to be approved at a 70% Joint Budget and Schedule Confidence Level (JCL).  This requires analysts to build models that integrate cost and schedule analysis to assess the confidence level of meeting two targets (cost and time).  This requires a tool framework that can conduct a risk and uncertainty analysis on schedule logic as well as integrate cost uncertainty analysis to account for phasing and costs that are dependent on overall duration.   NASA is currently using several platforms, but has seen some issues in extensibility, cost integration, and overall performance.

In 2010, JSC sponsored an investigation of using ACEIT technology to perform schedule risk analysis and to provide a framework for housing an integrated cost/schedule model.  This presentation will describe the core functionality designed for this prototype and demonstrate how ACEIT technology can be used to conduct a JCL.

Implementing the Discrete Statistical Scenario-Based (DSSB) Cost-Risk ACEIT Utility
David Graham – AFCAA/FMS/SMC-Operating Location

The DSSB cost-risk ACEIT utility takes its inputs from the risk assessments based on establishing risk likelihoods and cost consequences.  Oftentimes, this is called the “5X5 risk matrix” or “risk cube” approach where likelihoods and cost consequences are established by subject matter experts.  The DSSB utility allows likelihoods and cost consequences to be expressed as ranges, emulates the Bernoulli distribution (aka yes/no distribution) for simulated likelihood comparisons, and uses the ACEIT Latin Hypercube engine for simulating risk-driven cost consequences.  The application of the DSSB utility enables quantification of cost impact estimates as a cumulative distribution function that can be statistically added to a cost estimate.

This presentation will consist of a few introductory briefing slides describing the DSSB utility’s methodology but mostly will be a demonstration of the application of the DSSB utility to an actual program.  The demonstration will use sanitized data; however, the presentation will walk the attendees through the process that was actually used on the program.

MODELING TECHNIQUES TRACK

Evolution of Equations
Wanda Thomas – AMCOM

Most seasoned cost analysts began by creating equations in Excel, where you had to provide all the information used in an equation (including calculating inflation indices).  Early ACE capabilities were a step-up from Excel. ACE equations were a bit easier since ACE automatically calculated and applied inflation, but analysts still had to define multiple variables manually.  ACE 7.2 includes the Equation Builder, which assists in defining unique IDs, functions, DECs, user defined functions and automating methodologies.  ACE improvements have evolved to assist the cost analyst in creating simpler equations which are easier for analysts to understand and update an estimate someone else created.

Calculating “Workdays” for Schedule-driven Estimates
John Sandberg – Tecolote Research, Inc. 

One of the limitations a scheduler sees with ACE is its inability to perform duration calculations in workdays.  ACE can report a duration in calendar days by subtracting two dates, but estimating resource loads is usually performed in workdays (e.g., 5 days of work for every week); ACE under-reports finish dates due to this discrepancy.  The common workaround is to multiply durations by 7/5 to estimate workdays, but this technique may result in accumulated error with consecutive dates.  Fortunately, with some user-defined functions to convert to and from workdays, an analyst can process the appropriate durations--and from those the appropriate finish dates--for a schedule estimate in ACE.  This presentation will walk through some tricks with Julian dates that allow conversions with relative ease within date columns.  The simple example presented will make use of Min/Max functions for schedule logic, DECs for intermediate calculations, and UDFs for the underlying conversions.

Joint Probability of a Parametric Software Cost Estimate: Method and Example
Michael A. Ross – Tecolote Research, Inc.

This paper describes the Tecolote DSLOC Estimate Growth Model, which provides probabilistic growth adjustment to Technical Baseline single-point Estimates (TBEs) of Delivered Source Lines of Code (DSLOC) for New software and for Pre-Existing software, these estimates being sensitive to the “maturity” of the estimate; i.e., when, in the Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC), the TBE DSLOC estimate is performed. The model is based on Software Resources Data Report (SRDR) data collected by Dr. Wilson Rosa of the US Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA). This model provides an alternative to other software code growth methodologies such as Mr. Barry Holchin’s (2003) code growth matrix. The paper includes tables that can be copied into ACE’s Custom Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) definition dialog boxes in order to create the Custom CDFs that are needed for both baseline New DSLOC growth factor distributions and for baseline Pre-Existing DSLOC growth factor distributions.

Strategies for Developing a Drill-Friendly Cost Model
Jessica Tucker – TACOM

This presentation discusses strategies for developing an ACE Life Cycle Cost Estimate (LCCE) model for complex programs that will allow for flexibility and quick modifications in a time-sensitive drill scenario. Lessons learned from a joint pre-Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP) program and cost model will be covered. The presentation will demonstrate techniques that turned out to be inefficient in implementing drill modifications and provide alternative structure and coding strategies that will allow for more efficient drill modifications.

GENERAL SESSIONS

Estimate Set-up for What-ifs and Faster Updates 
Raymond Radovich - Tecolote Research, Inc. 

This presentation will cover tips and tricks to make your estimate better for performing quick what-if exercises, as well as show some estimate organization techniques that will make it faster and easier to update your estimate.  The presentation will also show how you can control whether a row will be available for override in POST.  Examples of tips will include choosing between C and F phasing, setting up your estimate for schedule changes, and setting up reports for what-if cases.

Understanding the Link between Tornado, Variance Analysis and Allocated RI$K Dollars
Alfred Smith – Tecolote Research, Inc.

This presentation will explore two well known, but frequently misunderstood POST RI$K charts: Tornado and Variance Analysis.  It will address common questions such as, “What does this report tell me?” And “What’s the connection between these reports and my risk dollars at a particular confidence level?” POST report options will be explained for each chart so you can get the information you need to bring clarity and understanding to your RI$K analysis results.